Posted by: quiscus | September 15, 2012

September 15, 2012

“James Howard Kunstler Says Watch Out

“Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” — Mike Tyson. “That’s a pithy way of saying where our country, perhaps the developed world, is at right now,” notes author James Howard Ku


You talk about magical thinking in two ways: Not only do we believe we can solve our energy problems with new technology, but we infuse that belief with wishful thinking.

These two ideas are related, and I think elements of them have to be viewed historically. The last 150 years have amounted to such a cavalcade of wonders and technological marvels that we’ve literally programmed ourselves to expect it will continue indefinitely. This sequence of events—the telephone, the light bulb, electricity in every home, airplanes, motion pictures, television, the computer and thousands of other conveniences to human life—programmed us to think there’s an endless supply of technological magic that can overcome anything.

I think we’re heading into a time-out from technological progress as we’ve known it—and by that I mean just the way I’ve described it, the expectation of endless magic. And I think that will come as an enormous shock to our culture.

Why are we in for a shock?

I don’t think the previous Dark Age that followed the collapse of Rome was quite the same as what we’re facing. That involved a profound and incremental series of losses in knowledge, technique and the ability to do things, everything from making good pottery and concrete to ways of organizing work.

Our situation now has much more potential for cultural damage, because our conditioning in technological progress is so extreme. The letdown may be awful when it becomes evident we’re not going to solve our energy problems with algae secretions, solar, wind or other alternative fuel schemes–that we’re not going to run Disney World, the interstate highway system, Wal-Mart and the military on any combination of other energy systems.

Then what happens?

This has enormous potential for disrupting our sense of reality. It’s hard to predict the kinds of reaction that this may generate.”

“What’s changed since your 2005 book, The Long Emergency?

First, it’s apparent that the problems we have with capital formation and the disabling of the banking system may be overcoming the issues of resource scarcity and peak oil, in the sense that we’re rapidly losing the ability to finance the kind of resource discovery and production we hoped would compensate for peak oil.

Second, I observed in The Long Emergency that we were becoming very delusional about the set of predicaments that we’re facing. I’m a little shocked at the quality and character of the delusional thinking and where it’s coming from. When you see articles in the New York Times, the supposed newspaper of record, that the USA may soon become a net energy exporter, you know there’s some kind of problem with perhaps the entire intellectual class in America.

What do you mean?

When societies get badly stressed, delusional thinking increases. We are now in that situation.

When you traffic in delusional thinking, you tell yourself a lot of lies and untruths. This is a dangerously infectious process. Once you start doing it in things like banking and money matters and carrying it out in the practical form of accounting fraud, then you’re really putting your culture, your society in peril.

These problems infect all realms of practical existence, including politics, business, media, education—so you end up, for example, with the President of the United States telling the public that we have 100 years of shale gas. That’s just an untruth. The consequence is a society that cannot and will not prepare itself for the reality of the future. “


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